October Unemployment

The most dramatic shift in employment picture has to be in the number of people not looking for work.  This figure has skewed the real unemployment picture all year but in October only  about 31,000  more stopped looking, according to BLS data.  The result is that the bulk of job losses appears more directly in the actual unemployment number. 

10.2%. 

The problem—and the solution—remain the same.  Businesses have to prepare for pre-Bush tax levels that will sap money that could have been invested in jobs or growth.  There is a significant threat of massive regulation and taxation from pending democrat legislation.  The growth of bureaucracy presents additional costs and challenges.  There is simply no incentive for the business community to take any risks with so many unknowns in the pipeline. 

Christmas hiring may take a slight edge off, but January looks precipitous.  And if the holiday season doesn’t deliver, 10.5-10.8% is likely. 

As for the stimulus creating or saving anything think of it more as bad policy.  Repaying it, along with all the other spending, will ultimately come on the backs of business and industry.  It can’t create anything without destroying something else in the process so a zero sum gain is the best we could ever expect.  But as we’ve seen, the stimulus is spending significantly more per job claimed no matter how many jobs they try to sell us on.  And with all the other costs on the way, unemployment will rise no matter how many jobs they think they’ve created or saved.

Government will never be able to create or save more jobs than the free market.  Ever.  Anyone who disagrees is lying or ignorant.